SUNDAY,  DECEMBER 7,  2008

RENEE

Posted at 6:25 p.m. ET

The investigation into what happened in Mumbai seems increasingly confused, and there remains the possibility of a flareup between India and Pakistan.    Renee Nielsen has filed a new report directly from Mumbai.  Incredibly, as Renee tells us, a hoax phone call almost created a catastrophe:

It's been a few days of back and forth blame in the newspapers, but today brings some interesting information:

-  Pakistan has promised to take action against LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba), and to arrest at least three Pakistanis who have been linked to the multiple attacks in Mumbai. This is being reported off a story from the Washington Post from Saturday.

-  A youth from Kolkatta (Calcutta) and a J&K (Jammu & Kashmir) policeman have been arrested in Delhi for fraud and criminal conspiracy.  The two allegedly bought 22 SIM (phone) cards which were used by the terrorists in the Mumbai attacks.  They have been accused of buying them from different shops after "faking the documents of a dead man."  The Times of India reports that most of the SIM cards during the attack were bought in Bengal and police are looking for others who bought three from Kolkata and another 10 from Barasat.

-  A hoax call was made to Pakistani President Asif Zardari by a person who claimed to be Indian external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee (the man with whom Condoleeza Rice held the news conference in Delhi last week).  Security measures were not taken and the call got through to Zardari. The Dawn internet publication reports the hoax caller:

...while ignoring the conciliatory language of the president, directly threatened to take military action if Islamabad failed to immediately act against the supposed perpetrators of the Mumbai killings.

As the telephone call ended many in the Presidency were convinced that the Indians had started beating the war drums. Within no time intense diplomatic and security activity started in Islamabad. Signals were sent to everyone who mattered about how the rapidly deteriorating situation may spiral out of control. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was advised to immediately return to the capital from Lahore, and a special plane (PAF chief's) was sent to Delhi to bring back the visiting Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi early in the morning on Nov 29 even when he was already booked to return by a scheduled PIA flight the same evening.

It was against this backdrop that some top Pakistani security officials briefed a few media persons on Saturday afternoon about a "threatening phone call" by the Indian external affairs minister to "someone" at the top in Islamabad. They also talked of Delhi's decision to put its air force in a state of "high alert", and described the following 24 to 48 hours as extremely critical. One of the top security officials even announced the possibility of shifting tens of thousands of troops from its western border with Afghanistan to its eastern frontier with India.

Sources said that during this period the Pakistan air force was at the highest alert. Among the citizens of Rawalpindi and Islamabad, who may have noticed fighter jets screaming overhead on Saturday morning, none would have known that the warplanes were mounting patrols with live ammunition. One senior official refused to call it a panic decision. "War may not have been imminent, but it was not possible to take any chances," he told Dawn.

Intense diplomatic efforts that started late on Friday went on throughout the following day. During this period phone calls were made from Islamabad to some of the top officials and diplomats in Washington, including Condoleezza Rice, and the US Secretary of State called Mr Mukherjee and others in India in a night-long effort to understand what might have gone wrong, and to persuade the two sides to bring down the temperature.

During this time, it was also revealed, an attempt was also made by the mysterious caller, claiming to be the Indian external affairs minister, to speak to the US Secretary of State, but due to specific checks laid down by the Americans, the call couldn't get through to Dr Rice.

These sources said that when Condoleezza Rice contacted Mr Mukherjee in the middle of the night to inquire about the reasons for hurling such threats at Pakistan he reportedly denied having any such call.

- Mumbai police are seeking custody of a man being held by the authorities in the UP (Indian state of Uttar Pradesh) who is a member of the LeT named Haheem Ansari.  He is originally from the Goregaon area in Mumbai and was caught in February with five other accused operatives for "allegedly attacking a CRPF camp in Rampur, UP, on Jan 1."  

According to the Times of India, "Fahim had told police that he'd done a 'recce' (reconnaissance mission) of 12 places in the city including the Taj hotel, the Oberoi, the police commissioner's office, the Maharastra state police HQ, and the Bombay Stock Exchange."  He also stated at that time to have been in touch with a LeT commander named Muzammil and gave his phone number to the ATS (anti-terrorist squad).  This number was found in the satellite phone of Abu Ismail, who was shot near Chowpatty on the first night of the Mumbai attacks.  The police are now "seeking to establish if Ansari knew about the 10 terrorists who created terror for almost three days. Several phone calls were made and received from a satellite phone to Muzammil's number."

Thank you again, Renee.

December 7, 2008.       Permalink          

SMART MOVE - AT 5:33 P.M. ET:  President-elect Barack Obama deflected a question about whether Caroline Kennedy should take Senator Hillary Clinton’s place representing New York in the Senate when Mrs. Clinton steps down to become secretary of state.  Tom Brokaw, interviewing Mr. Obama on “Meet the Press,” noted there was considerable “buzz” in New York about Ms. Kennedy, who called Gov. David Paterson last week and mentioned the job (although the governor has said she did not expressly say she wanted it).

COMMENT:  It's smart of Obama to stay out of this.  The appointment of Caroline Kennedy, whose views on just about everything are unknown, would not go down well with many people.  The name "Kennedy" does not entitle anyone to an automatic seat in the U.S. Senate.

ORIGIN OF A PHRASE - AT 5:12 P.M. ET:  On this Pearl Harbor Day, we recall that President Roosevelt referred to December 7th as "a date which will live in infamy."  Many have wondered whether the phrase originated with him, or was borrowed.  Reader Adrian Murray refers us to this quote, from the book, "Overthrow," by Stephen Kinzer.  The passage refers to the fact that the ruling monarch of Hawaii turned Pearl Harbor over to the Americans in 1887.  His sister, who later became queen, "wrote in her diary that it was 'a day of infamy in Hawaiian history.'"

Hmm.

FIGHTING BACK - AT 11:01 A.M. ET:  From AP:  NEW ORLEANS – In a year when national Republican fortunes took a turn for the worse, Louisiana delivered the GOP two seats in Congress in elections delayed by Hurricane Gustav.

Indicted Democratic U.S. Rep. William Jefferson was ousted Saturday from his New Orleans area district, while Republicans narrowly held on to the seat vacated by a retiring incumbent...

...In the 4th Congressional District in western Louisiana, Republican John Fleming squeaked past Democrat Paul Carmouche in the race to replace retiring 10-term Rep. Jim McCrery, R-La. Only a few hundred votes separated the two.

A NUCLEAR PEARL HARBOR?

Posted at 10:22 a.m. ET

The UN's man in charge of saving the world has admitted failure.  But, of course, he doesn't want anyone else to save it either.

Mohamed elBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, now concedes that all his efforts to restrain Iran's nuclear program have gone down the drain.  We are moved that he has told us this, now that Iran, according to many informed estimates, is one to two years away from the capacity to build the bomb.  The L.A. Times reports:

The chief of the world's nuclear weapons watchdog organization considers five years of U.S. and international efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions a failure, as Tehran moves ever closer to obtaining the means to develop weapons of mass destruction...

..."We haven't really moved one inch toward addressing the issues," said Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA. "I think so far the policy has been a failure."

So we're back to square one, with a new president who's hot to negotiate, even though all the negotiations have failed.  What's wrong with that picture?

Of course, this UN chap has some advice:

The 66-year-old Egyptian diplomat and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize laureate also urged world leaders to address broader unease about security, poverty and perceived injustice rather than zero in on narrow security concerns, such as nuclear weapons.

Narrow security concerns?  Yeah, right.  We've got to put this destruction of whole cities into perspective. 

And, of course, the required attack on President Bush:

He said U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gave him "lots of hope" after he inserted a proposal to abolish all nuclear weapons in the Democratic Party platform and advocated opening diplomatic dialogue with rivals.

"He is ready to talk to his adversaries, enemies, if you like, including Iran, also [North] Korea," he said, adding that the Bush administration was reluctant to do so. "To continue to pound the table and say, 'I am not going to talk to you,' and act in a sort of a very condescending way -- that exaggerates problems."

Fella, just what has all your talking accomplished?  You just admitted failure.  Yet you want us to pursue the same course.  Get into the real world, and then we can take you seriously.

During the interview, ElBaradei, who is scheduled to retire in about a year, shed his severe public persona, punctuating freewheeling comments about weapons proliferation, world peace and contemporary politics with laughter. He sat surrounded by his collection of African art while wearing a gray pinstriped suit and a bright orange Salvatore Ferragamo tie.

He spoke of possibly living in southern France, where he recently purchased a home.

Sounds reasonable.  He'd probably be safe from Iranian nuclear weapons in southern France.

Oh, and here's some more advice:

One hope of a diplomatic solution, he said, was for the U.S. and Iran to meet to begin talking, not just about nuclear technology but also about grievances that stretch from the 1950s, when the U.S. helped overthrow a democratically elected government, to the present, when Iranian and American surrogates vie for supremacy in several Middle East battlegrounds.

So let me get this right:  After elBaradei fails, and admits it, he really thinks Iran will give up its nuclear program if we talk to them about past grievances.  Yeah, of course they will.

He brushed aside the argument of some U.S. analysts who describe Iran as a messianic state determined to obtain nuclear weapons to launch a war against its archnemesis, Israel.

"When I go to Iran I see . . . that there are all different shades and colors in Iran, from atheist to religious zealots," he said. "So Iran is no different than any other country. I mean, they are connected with the rest of the world."

Just read that last comment again.  Would you trust this man with your children's lives?  He has the mentality of a 12-year-old.  The issue is not Iran's "diversity," but who controls the nuclear program.  The man understands nothing.

ElBaradei contended that the best route to avoiding the spread of nuclear weapons is building international trust.

"The system should not be based on, 'I am powerful militarily,' " he said. "The system should be based on, 'What contribution do I make to world civilization?' "

That's nice.  While we've on the way to your paradise, I'd like to keep the powder dry, if it's okay with you, Mohamed.

It's perfectly obvious that the wrong man has been in charge of nuclear nonproliferation, and the world may pay the price.

This is Pearl Harbor Day.  Remember what happened when attitudes like elBaradei's prevailed before World War II. 

December 7, 2008.      Permalink          

TODAY

Posted at 8:08 a.m. ET

It still gives me a chill to write the words, "Sunday, December 7..."  For the parents' and grandparents' generation, December 7, 1941, which President Roosevelt called "a date that will live in infamy," was the date that changed their world.  American entered World War II, and 400,000 Americans paid the price with their lives.

That generation had just gone through the Depression, and now was fighting the largest war in history.  It would return from that war to build a superpower, would fight again in Korea, and, although it's never given credit for it, pass the civil rights laws that started breaking down racism. 

The greatest generation.  A member of that generation, Ronald Reagan, entered the pantheon of great presidents. 

Standards in America today are, er, a bit lower.  After September 11, 2001, Americans responded with the spirit that has always moved them, but the battle in the war on terror has been borne by a very narrow group within the American population.  The elites are uninvolved, even hostile, although their grandparents were on the landing beaches of World War II.

The life of every one of our fighting men and women is precious, but we have lost fewer soldiers in this current struggle, now lasting seven years, than we lost on a small Pacific island called Iwo Jima in 1945.  And yet, look at the whining, the complaining, the talk about our being "war weary," an exhausted nation, stretched to its limit.  And look at the abuse heaped on President Bush, who is probably one of the least cynical presidents we've had in the last half century.

As we recall December 7, 1941, we might think of the ways in which we can restore the parts of the American ethic that have been eroded over the years.  It would be a fitting tribute to those who died as America entered World War II, and who might wonder what their sacrifice was all about. 

December 7, 2008.      Permalink          

SATURDAY,  DECEMBER 6,  2008

CONFUSION IN INDIA OVER MUMBAI ATTACK - AT 4:01 P.M. ET:  The Washington Post reported:

NEW DELHI --The ongoing probe into last week's Mumbai attacks widened late Friday night as Indian police began investigating the possibility of local support groups with the arrest of two new suspects in New Delhi and the eastern city of Calcutta.

Police arrested two men identified as Tausif Rehman,28, and Mukhtar Ahmed Sheikh, 35, for buying cell phone cards using forged documents. Officials now want to investigate whether the gunmen in Mumbai used these cards to make calls during their attacks last week.

But Fox News is reporting:

RINAGAR, India — One of the two men arrested for illegally buying mobile phone cards used by gunmen in the Mumbai attacks is a counter-insurgency police officer who may have been on an undercover mission, security officials said Saturday...

...A senior police official in Indian Kashmir said one of them, Mukhtar Ahmed, is part of a semiofficial counter-insurgency network whose members are usually former Kashmiri militants.

Calcutta police have been told Ahmed is "our man and it's now up to them how to facilitate his release," said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.

Flaps like this are one reason why there's been such a loss of confidence in India's security services.  This is still a very volatile situation with the potential for a clash between India and Pakistan.  Facts and public confidence are important.  They are in short supply. 

PLEASE NOTE, MR. OBAMA - AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  From AP:   WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Defense Department said Friday it shot down a missile in a simulated attack designed to test a proposed shield against strikes by long-range ballistic missiles from nations such as North Korea.

The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency used an interceptor missile launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California to knock down a missile meant to simulate the speed and trajectory of a North Korean attack. It struck the target missile around 3:30 p.m., shortly after the target was launched from a location in Alaska.

COMMENT:  Missile defense is crucial, yet Obama has said in the past that he wanted to curtail our missile-defense programs.  Don't, sir.  I don't want this country blackmailed.

CHANGE?

Posted at  9:03 a.m. ET

With Hillary Clinton headed to the State Department, a Senate seat from New York opens.  Governor David Paterson will make the appointment.

This is an opportunity for change we can believe in - for an appointment based on merit.  Well, some chance.  We're already getting the first rumblings of standard Democratic politics:

WASHINGTON — Caroline Kennedy is interested in the Senate seat that would open once Hillary Rodham Clinton becomes secretary of state, according to a close relative who says the powerful Kennedy clan is fully behind her rising to the office previously held by her uncle.

"I know she's interested," Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Friday. "She spent a lot of her life balancing public service with obligations to her family. Now her children are grown, and she is ready to move onto a bigger stage."

I'm impressed.  That same description applies to several thousand other New Yorkers whose names don't happen to be Kennedy.

The Kennedy family's connections and history cannot force Paterson to choose Caroline, but the family's strong support could make it difficult for him not to.

Robert Kennedy said the family would come out en masse for her if she does get the appointment and has to run for election in 2010.

"If she runs, you will see more Kennedys than you have ever seen in your life," he said.

Look, I have nothing against her.  From all accounts, she's a fine individual, and the most mature and dignified of the Kennedys.  But the Kennedy family gave Barack Obama a big boost toward the presidency, as the story notes:

She made a splash in early 2008 by writing an op-ed column for The New York Times declaring her support for Obama, saying he had the potential to be as inspirational to Americans as her father was in the 1960s. She also spoke at the Democratic National Convention.

She then hit the campaign trail with Obama, and worked on the vice-presidential search that eventually settled on Joe Biden.

Appointing Caroline, ahead of many more worthy candidates in New York, would look like a blatant political payoff, which it would be. 

Further, New York is a big state.  I don't normally play the group-politics game, but it's been years since residents outside the downstate, New York City orbit have been represented in the U.S. Senate.  Maybe it's time for that kind of change we can believe in.

Finally, if her name were not Kennedy, would she even be considered?  Much of her public service, and it is admirable indeed, is no different from the service performed by legions of women in the state...and they aren't being considered for the nation's highest legislative body.

New York has a tradition of sending high-powered, sometimes larger-than-life figures to the Senate, symbolized by the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan.  With all due respect to Ms. Kennedy, she's not in that league.

December 6, 2008.      Permalink           

CONFIRMATION

Posted at 8:28 a.m. ET

It's gratifying when something we know in our gut to be true is confirmed by a respected study.  Consider this, from The Washington Times:

President-elect Barack Obama has received the most positive campaign news coverage on the main network news shows in the 20-year history of such studies by the Center for Media and Public Affairs (CMPA).

Mr. Obama received 68 percent positive evaluations from the four major networks, according to the study released Friday.

"Obama's positive press is the strongest showing CMPA has ever recorded for a presidential candidate since we began monitoring election news in 1988," said Robert Lichter, director of the nonpartisan research group affiliated with George Mason University.

And now the contrast:

By contrast, his Republican rival almost set the record for hostile press coverage.

Just 33 percent of the stories on Sen. John McCain were positive in nature -- "the worst showing" since former President George H.W. Bush received only 29 percent positive press in 1988, Mr. Lichter said.

And McCain was said to be a "darling" of the press.  Some darling.  These reporters are unfaithful lovers.

NBC was the most Obama-friendly of the four networks, with 73 percent of the coverage being favorable. Fox News was the sole network to mix it up with Mr. Obama, with only 37 percent of the stories on him positive in tone, although that was only slightly less favorable than the 41 percent favorability of the network's McCain coverage.

The face of NBC News used to be Huntley/Brinkley.  Today it's Chris Matthews.  Gone slumming.

A Pew Research Center survey released in late October found, for example, that 70 percent of voters agreed that journalists "wanted" Mr. Obama to win the White House; the figure was 62 percent even among Democratic respondents.

A Harvard University analysis in early November revealed that 77 percent of Americans say the press is politically biased; of that group, 5 percent said it skewed conservative. Even The Washington Post's ombudsman, Deborah Howell, offered evidence of an "Obama tilt" in her own newspaper in a recent op-ed piece.

Despite all this, have you seen a single editor, publisher or head of a broadcast news division apologize?  Have you heard any pledges to do better, even to review their work?

The reality is that many journalists don't care.  They're in journalism not to report the news, but to "make a difference," and they made the difference they set out to make.  It's a sad time in journalism, and a dangerous time for this democracy.  Wise decisions depend on information that is fair, accurate and complete.  Clearly, we're not getting the information we, as citizens, deserve.  What does that say about the future of our democratic process?

December 6, 2008.      Permalink